What awaits the used car market in 2026?

Like every year, Europe’s used car market is gearing up for another round of plot twists. This time, the storyline includes lingering aftershocks from the chip crisis, a shortage of cars under 5 years old, and tightening emission rules that will make some cars feel less welcome in European city centers.

None of this points to falling prices anytime soon. Unless you’re shopping for a used EV – in that case, 2026 might become your happy year.

carVertical’s used car market forecast for 2026 wrapped

• The lingering effects of the chip crisis will continue to limit the supply of nearly new cars.
• Used car prices are expected to remain high, with little evidence of a market-wide drop.
• The second-hand EV market will expand rapidly as 2020s models reach the end of their leasing cycles.
• Chinese-made EVs will influence affordability but face uncertain long-term demand due to faster depreciation.
• Stricter EU emission rules will further restrict older combustion cars, pushing buyers toward cleaner alternatives.
• The introduction of Euro 7 will reshape both new and used markets, targeting not only exhaust gases but also brake and tire pollution.

Lower prices? Don’t hold your breath

Inflation has calmed down across most EU countries, and interest rates aren’t climbing like they used to. Unfortunately, that doesn’t automatically translate into cheaper wheels on the showroom floor.

The European Central Bank’s forecasts show that interest rates will not return to pre-pandemic levels for quite some time. This means that new cars will remain less affordable than they were a few years ago.

Why are nearly new cars in short supply?

The pandemic years left the global car industry with fewer freshly-produced vehicles – and fewer cars built then means fewer 3–6-year-old models available today. That gap is now showing up in the used market.

Right now, the value of 3–6-year-old cars is falling much slower than before. The used car market is sustaining high prices, and there is no reason for them to drop anytime soon. In short: the ‘sweet spot’ of cars that are not too old, not too new, and reasonably priced is becoming a rare species.

Where the good news hides: the used EV boom

If there’s one market segment that’s about to get more exciting and more affordable, it’s electric cars. The EV boom that started around 2020 is finally reaching the used market in large volumes. Lease contracts are ending, fleets are refreshing, and online classifieds are about to feel the impact.

Every year, more new electric vehicles are produced, and all of them eventually enter the second-hand market, which is why used EVs are steadily becoming more affordable.

Chinese EVs are also entering the mix. They tend to depreciate faster than their European counterparts, which may make them attractive in the used market – although their long-term demand is still uncertain.

Stricter emission rules: older cars will lose mobility

European cities aren’t easing up on pollution rules. From January 1, 2026, diesel cars below Euro 5 and petrol models below Euro 2 will be banned from entering low-emission zones in EU countries. Starting March 1, violations will come with fines.

These local rules will probably push many drivers to consider newer, cleaner vehicles – even if reluctantly.

Euro 7: the next big standard reshaping the market

Just as drivers get used to Euro 6, the EU is rolling out the next emissions chapter. The Euro 7 standard will cover not only exhaust emissions but also other types of pollution, such as brake and tire wear.

This matters for electric cars too. Their higher weight and stronger torque mean faster tire wear, releasing more microplastics into the environment – something Euro 7 aims to regulate.

The new standard will also introduce durability requirements: a car will need to meet pollution thresholds for 10 years or 200,000 km, not just when it leaves the factory.

The timeline:

• November 29, 2026. From this date onward, all newly developed car models (i.e., models that have not previously been sold and need EU type approval) must comply with Euro 7 in order to be approved for production and sale.
• November 2027. Euro 7 becomes mandatory for all newly registered cars in the EU.

The used car market is shaped not only by trends in the new car industry, but also by broader economic and political conditions. One thing is certain – 2026 is set to be an interesting year for both buyers and sellers.